HQ

Fermi Estimation Lab

break an unanswerable question into factors and multiply

Your factor chain — edit every guess

Your estimate

20,000,000

Reference check

real-world answer for a metro area is usually in the tens.

You're off by 5.6 orders of magnitude — check which factor was the wildest guess.

Nothing is saved — reload and the lab forgets you.

No Fibs — Honest Limitations

Fermi estimates are order-of-magnitude exercises, not answers: each factor is a guess, and errors compound. The "reference" values here are rough real-world anchors, not verified statistics. The point is the decomposition discipline, not the final number — a result within one order of magnitude is a win.